Planetary Nats Blog

One of my good blogging friends and fellow Nats fan, Mike Henderson (whose blog can be found at nationalspride.com) wrote a recent posting concerning Cristian Guzman, and his potential to be the Nats’ All-Star for 2008. At the end of his posting, he wrote the following:

More importantly, now is the time to consider what the Nats should do with respect to Guzman at the end of the season, the final one of his current contract. If he is priced reasonably, should they think about trying to re-sign him to a multi-year deal?

Cold-hearted though it may sound, from where I sit the answer is no.

Lest we forget, the Nats are still in the process of rebuilding the system, from the MLB level right on down. What they should do is, first, shop Guzman to a contender during the season in exchange for prospects. If that doesn’t work out, by all means offer him arbitration at the end of the season.

If he accepts a one-year arbitration deal, fine. If not, the Nats should be happy to get the two draft picks that accrue when a Type A free agent (which I think Guzie will be) declines arbitration.

While it’d be heartwarming to say that Guzman should be welcome to a place at the Nats’ table for as long as he wants to stay and is effective, the big picture needs to be kept in mind.

And while it’s a little sad to consider the thought of perhaps having to say goodbye, the decision to continue to move the franchise forward shouldn’t be a tough one.

I don’t agree. Here’s why:

Let’s assume for the moment that Guzman is gone in 2009. For a different set of reasons, but just as certainly, we can also assume that Felipe Lopez will also be gone in 2009. This would leave the Nats with no middle infield, and the necessity to acquire at least one, and perhaps two major-league ready players to fill those positions (one could make the argument that Ronnie Belliard, under contract through 2009 could play every day at second base). Where would the Nats acquire one or two middle infielders?

• In trade – The Nats have nothing to trade that would get them a majors-ready shortstop, with the possible exception of a starting pitcher, and I think it is safe to assume that we’re not trading John Lannan (or any of our other starters).
• From within the system – There are no majors-ready middle infielders in the Nats system. There are some replacement-player-level players, some of whom are young, and might be diamonds in the rough. But these are not the players that you come north out of spring training, thinking that you’ve solved your middle infield problems.
• Free Agency – There is some possibilities here. Suppose I told you I knew where you could find a 30 year-old free agent shortstop who is a switch hitter, is hitting over .300 and is having an all-around career year. Moreover, he’s been injured for most of the last few years, so his recent stats don’t look that great, so there’s probably some discount to be had. Plus, you can start negotiating with him today, rather than waiting for the start of the free agency period in November (the advantage being, no competition from other teams). Lastly, he’s probably among the best of the available 2009 free agent shortstops. His name? Cristian Guzman.

Some might argue that what the Nats need are prospects, and not majors-ready players. The Nats absolutely do need prospects (particularly in the infield). But the one area that the Nats are probably most in need is at second and short, and there is no hope that any infield prospects that they might acquire (or any that are already in the system) would be ready to play at Nationals Park anytime before 2010. So that leaves the Nats looking for a free agent shortstop (and/or second baseman) to play next year, and perhaps the year after. Why not extend the one you have, who has shown that he’s the real deal? Nobody knows more about Guzman than the Nats do now, so there would be few unanswered questions. Everyone will worry that his production will wane, but that is going to be the case with any free agent that you might select, so if you’re pretty certain that you’re going to have to sign a free agent, you may as well get the best available at the position.

Here’s the proper strategy for Cristian Guzman: Sign him to a four or five year contract. Spend some money, and load the back end with incentives. Look to trade him with a year on his contract. This gives the Nats time to find and develop the top-tier shortstop that they are going to need in the long run.

Do you remember where you were on the evening of September 30, 1971?

If you do, then you know exactly why today is an important day in Washington baseball history.

I remember where I was on that night – I was in my room, with my transistor radio, listening to the last Senators game ever. I was ten years old. They left town. I’ve never forgiven them.

“They” were so embarrassed by the shabby and thoughtless way they treated me and the thousands of other Senators fans that they left behind, that they had to change their name. Now they’re known as the Texas Rangers. And they’re coming to Washington tonight, after 37 years, pretending like nothing happened.

Bastards.

What’s wrong with them? Do they think that ten year old kids just forget about being left to fend for themselves to complete their discovery of baseball?

At some point when I was in my early 20’s, and I was mobile enough to make rather frequent trips to Memorial Stadium to watch the Orioles, I realized that the Senators moving to Texas had made a huge difference in my life. When I was a kid, I remember carrying my transistor radio around while my mother was grocery shopping, listening to spring training games on the radio, and at the same time wishing that the thermometer would inch up to 50 degrees. I didn’t go anywhere in the summer without my baseball glove, and there was a certain rhythm and routine to my day, that always ended in a baseball game, or a game of catch. Televised games were a rarity back then, but my childhood schedule revolved around those televised games, and of course, I would listen on the radio whenever I could.

When I was a kid, trips to RFK Stadium were relatively rare – perhaps two or three a season. I remember my first game as if it were yesterday, and I remember being in awe of the incredible green that was the inside of RFK Stadium. I remember watching sitting in the mezzanine with my mom and dad and two brothers on a Sunday afternoon against the Yankees. I remember the last opening day, where the Senators shut out the Oakland A’s, 8-0.

That night in late September, as the Senators took the lead against the Yankees, I was thrilled. I remember thinking that perhaps something would change, and the Senators would stay after all. I remember Frank Howard hitting that home run, and listening to the crowd roar on the radio. I remember the chaos as the fans twice stormed onto the field. I remember the Senators led 7-5, but the official final score was a 9-0 loss by forfeit.

There was no spring in 1972. Add to that, the renaissance of the Redskins and the tenure of George Allen, and the transformation of a baseball fan into a football fan had begun. I no longer carried my baseball glove with me in the summers. I think I went to a baseball game at Memorial Stadium that next year, for “Safety Patrol Day”, but I can’t even remember who played, or any of the details of the game. As great as the Orioles were then they weren’t ‘my’ team, and they weren’t going to take the place of the Senators in my heart. And I tried to find love for the Rangers, but there was something definitely wrong with trying to love someone/something that had abandoned you.

It wasn’t like my love for baseball died, but I have often wondered how my life would have been different if baseball had been a bigger part of my youth – or at least, the part after 1971. Instead of getting dusty and dirty at the diamond, I hung out at the swimming pool. Who knows what other forms of juvenile delinquency might have been avoided if we’d only had a local baseball team?

When the Expos moved to Washington at the end of 2004, I was caught by surprise at how strongly I reacted to the news. And while most of my family still lives in the Washington Area, I live in Alaska, and lead a decidedly un-east-coast existence. But I have made room in my life, and in my heart for the Nationals, and I follow them as closely as I might if I lived in Silver Spring, rather than Anchorage. Heck, it’s only June, and I’ve already seen them in person six times this season (I am 6-0 in games I’ve attended this year… are you paying attention, Stan?).

So tonight, I am faced with the homecoming 37 years in the making – the night that the Senators return to Washington. Admittedly, these are not the same Senators that left in 1971; ownership has changed hands at least a couple times. I couldn’t be bothered by the exact details. What matters is, it is them. They are the ones that abandoned me, and abandoned Washington.

We might not have realized it, but we suffered those 33 seasons without baseball. A whole generation of Washingtonians never got to know what Washington Baseball was all about. Girl at work (June 19, 2008 at 4:30 PM) had it exactly right. Bad baseball is better than no baseball, and thirty-three years of being told that black-and-orange was more than good enough for us… was simply not good enough. And while there are a lot of people who feel anger and animosity towards Peter Angelos for preventing the relocation of baseball to Washington for so long, it is time we remembered how we got to that situation in the first place.

I wish I could be there.

I would boo. I would root against them as hard as I could. I would bring signs to the game. I would think of caustic things to say. I would hope that 30,000 of my fellow fans will feel the same way, but was I said above, Washington is a generation removed from the Senators, and for some, memory is mercifully short.

I hope we kick their ass,  9-0 in each game. I hope they beg to get out of town on Sunday. Seeing them again in Washington in six years will be too soon.

Don’t let the door hit you in the ass when you leave.

It isn’t just about the expectation of wins (and losses). It is now, and has always been, about building for the future. The problem is, from where the fans sit, it isn’t entirely clear that the Nats are really building.

In fact, thirty seconds of thought will indicate that they are; one only has to look at the minors to see that the pipeline is at least partially stocked with something other than cobwebs. Moreover, the Nationals minor league system has the best combined record in baseball. Admittedly, minor league baseball may not be all about winning, but if nobody is out there trying to win as their primary goal, but rather to foster the growth of young talent, one could reasonably make the argument that won-loss record is at least a partial indicator of success.

But little of that is consoling after watching the Nats flail in Minneapolis. Even when they’re winning, there is something a bit unsettling about the team. I feel very fortunate to have seen the Nats in Seattle, where they caught a team that was struggling as badly as they are. It was fun to watch, but I never got the sense that I was watching a juggernaut, even when sweeping the Mariners in Safeco. So there’s something very ‘MSG’ about our Nats diet as of late. An hour after a win, we’re hungry again.

So this is what I suggest: Stop watching the Nats with the expectation of a particular outcome, which is to say, that the Nats are going to win. Instead, look at the individual moving parts, and lets watch how they grow and develop. And with that in mind, here is my list of things to watch for the rest of this season:

• Watch for a lack of personnel changes at the top: Don’t expect Bowden to be fired before the end of the season. If you ignore the won-loss record this year, and simply look at the acquisition of personnel, Bowden has done a pretty good job as GM. The Nats have drafted and traded for prospects rather well, and in doing so, provided the foundation for a winning club, if not this year, in a year or two. What Bowden hasn’t done well this year is manage the 25-man roster. Admittedly, the roster problems are even more severe than usual, with all the injuries, but there has been a lot of playing with a short bench. I predict that Bowden will be fired at the end of the season, and it will signal an important organizational change for the Nats. It will signal the transition from the ‘acquiring the pieces’ phase to the ‘putting the pieces together’ phase. Bowden has some important shortcomings that, in my opinion, make him unsuited for the latter task. If I am wrong, and Bowden is fired before the end of the season, it will almost certainly be because other MLB teams are trying to court Mike Rizzo into GM positions, and the only way the Nats can keep Rizzo without crippling Bowden in the trade market is to fire Bowden and make Rizzo the GM.
• Watch the Nats designate Wily Mo Pena. I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened today or tomorrow. If you’re Bowden, and you still love him, send him down (he’ll clear waivers) and let him get his 300 AB in Columbus, and then bring him back in September… maybe. Who would you bring up instead? Well, there are all sorts of choices. Pick one.
• Watch the development of Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. It is hard to really appreciate the growth that they’ve experienced thus far, when it rains in our hearts every day, but give Bowden credit on these two acquisitions. Milledge is already as good as Church would have been on this team, and Schneider would be spare parts, with the emergence of Jesus Flores. Dukes has some growing up to do yet, but at least in public, he’s been a good citizen, and he’s flashing the leather and getting good ABs.
• Watch the team develop some synergy as the injured veterans clear the DL. When healthy, we have a middle-of-the-pack roster, that without the clutch bats of Zim and Nick Johnson, and the steadying presence of Austin Kearns, is exposed and easily pitched around. Clearing the DL will go a long way towards creating more sunny days in our hearts.
• Watch the development of our starting pitchers. Shawn Hill sure struggled today, but looking back at recent pitching performances, for the most part, the scores and the won-loss record belie the fact that the Nats have pretty good starters. Lannan is going to be spectacular, Bergmann has his flashes of brilliance, Redding and Perez have both been more than serviceable, and when Hill is on, he’s amazing. But all of them have been hung out to dry by their offenses, and while one might say that what happens at the plate is not related to what happens on the mound, the question is, how long can a pitcher pitch with no margin of error? When our bats give the starters a lead, the pitchers will be dazzling… and none of that addresses the talented arms in the minors waiting to come up.

I am disappointed that the Nats are not on the road to 85 wins this year. Before I started blogging, I was Professor Emeritus in the “Glass Half Full Department”, and as you can see, I revert to my roots. But that being said, I think we will soon see the end of the Bowden era, and for no other reason than it will shake up the clubhouse a bit, a change in the coaching staff, particularly with regard to Lenny Harris. But there are other lessons to be learned this season and chemistry to build, so don’t expect too much change before October. Making changes now sends the message of panic and instability, neither of which is what the Nats need.

The medicine tastes awful, doesn’t it?

I am definitely a ‘Planista’. The thing that I like most about ”The Plan” is that it is an organizational philosophy that has a clear goal – winning the World Series. Certainly there are critics, among whom are those that think that the Nationals ownership is ‘cheap’, but I believe that the low payrolls are more an artifact of their approach to personnel rather than a goal in and of itself.

Now that we’re between a third and half way through the season, it appears pretty plain that my “irrational exuberance” (and that of a lot of other people) is somewhat misplaced, and at this point, if the Nats could garner 74 wins (to match last season’s record) it would be quite an accomplishment. So now that our expectations are now more in line with reality, I am curious to know what people think would be realistic goals for the Nats this year.

Here are some of mine:

• Resign Cristian Guzman. If you could get him for three years, I would do it.
• Find out if Dukes and Milledge are long-term pieces. I think they are, but I could use another 90 games to convince me.
• Find your rotation of the future. The Nats have probably ten starting pitchers that are credible candidates. Who are your five?
• Sign your draft picks.

If you do those things, you’re left with long term holes at first and second base, and you have Marrero as a possible first baseman. Perhaps now you’re at the spot where you make the blockbuster trade for a second baseman, or sign a free agent.

So, what are your goals?

I am back in Anchorage after a weekend in Seattle. I went to Safeco Field for each of the three games, and here’s what I got:

• I got a nasty sunburn on Sunday. Aparently Alaskans are not designed for temperate latitude sun.
• I got to see the Nats sweep the Mariners. I came away from the first game thinking that it was mostly the luck of a poor pitcher, but my opinion has changed some. The Nats got some timely hitting in the second inning Friday night, and made the most of it… though I think the Nats don’t win that game without the DH (Pena singled in the second, pitcher would have bunted). Most of the moving parts worked well on Saturday and Sunday.
• I got an Adrian Beltre Bobblehead.
• I got Ryan Zimmerman’s autograph (and John Lannan, Tim Redding and Wil Nieves. Good thing I got Nieves, never know what is going to happen to him).
• I was convinced (yet again) that Jesus Flores is the real deal.
• I got to impress some Seattleites by predicting (at three different games) a Felipe Lopez groundout, 4-3, a Jose Vidro groundout, 4-3 and a Wily Mo Pena strikeout. How hard can any of those predictions be? In all three cases, they came up with runners on base.
• I got to enjoy Safeco Field. All the things that people say about the place are true. Plus, when you walk around wearing Nats gear, they treat you like a guest. One of the hosts gave me her secret route out from the ballpark, which worked like a charm. Lots of people asked where I was from, and if I had come from DC to watch the games. Everyone was friendly and courteous. Reminded me of 1/(Citizens Bank Park).
• I got to see JimBo on the field with his gal pal and another couple. He was wearing some ratty jeans, but his girlfriend looked nice. I didn’t say hello – I am not sure I want to be seen in public with him.

I couldn’t have asked for a better trip to Seattle. But I am still conflicted about our boys. But I am starting to think that when people get healthy things may start to change. A healthy Kearns spells the end for Wily Mo. Dukes (despite his run-allowing error today) has locked up an outfield spot, though I think that he might be a better centerfielder than Milledge. A healthy Zim spells the end for Lopez – and by the way, I would love to hear from the SABRmetricians out there about how much of a difference there is defensively between Zim and his replacements. My non-scientific answer is, a ton.

Know what else I got this weekend? Some reason to hope that things are going to get better.

I have been arriving at the games here in Seattle just as the gates open to let fans into the park. Yesterday the Mariners were honoring the anniversary of the creation of the US Army, and had the Army Band from Fort Lewis at the game. Just inside the main gate, the Army Band was set up, and as the gates opened to let fans into the park, the band struck up a tune: “The Washington Post March”.

Coincidence?

I don’t remember if it was the third or fourth inning, but at some point during last night’s game, I came to the realization that Tyler Clippard was breezing through the Mariner’s lineup, getting by with ten to fifteen pitches an inning. Except for a couple of solo homers in the fourth – and yes, solo homers are just a base hit or a walk away from a game-busting run deluge – it was a very efficient and serviceable performance.

Add to that a 9-4-5 putout on Ichiro’s first inning leadoff double-stretched-into-an-out, some very good relief pitching, some timely double plays, and Jesus Flores’ two-run homer, and the Nats actually looked like a major league team last night. The “Glass Half Empty Department” points out, however, that the Nats were playing the Mariners, so one shouldn’t get too excited about it all.

To  be sure, there are a number of reasons to be skeptical of last night’s performance. While Clippard pitched into the seventh inning, he left with no outs and two on. Saul Rivera came on, and nearly walked Yuniesky Betancourt. Betancourt, trying to bunt, took three pitches to get ahead 3-0. The crowd seemed to sense a big inning coming on, and now Rivera had no room for error. Rivera followed his first three balls with two strikes. At 3-2, Betancourt attempted to bunt again, and sent a foul tip into Flores’ mitt for a strikeout. The next batter, Ichiro, grounded into a very uncharacteristic 4-6-3 double play. So the Mariners seventh went single, walk, strikeout-while-bunting, double play. As Craig Ferguson would say “Remind you of anyone?” The Mariners faithful started to head for the exits.

From there, it was just a matter of getting the next six outs, a task that was very easily handled by Ayala in the eighth and Rauch in the ninth.

I wore my red last night, the same Nats pullover that I wore for the exhibition game against the Orioles, opening night against the Braves, and the next game against the Phillies in Philadelphia. I really think it made a difference, because there wasn’t much from the Nats performance last night that would lead you to believe that there was something about them that was substantively different than on any previous game.

After a six-run second, I imagined two possible outcomes: one where Shawn Hill took command of the game, and stifled the home team, finally cruising to a lopsided something-to-one score, and the second where the Nats would slowly desanguinate themselves, and finally bleed out at the end of the game.

Lastings Milledge steals second in the second inning of last night’s game

The second scenario was much closer to reality, and were it not for an emergency transfusion by Jon Rauch in the ninth, my fantasy would have become a nightmare-come-true.

The second inning was spectacular – lots of disciplined strokes, and the resulting runs. But the key to the Nats success in the second is found in the box score, for as soon as R. A. Dickey left, so did the Nats mojo, suggesting that the explosion was more about poor pitching than good hitting.

Hill was good enough, but were it not for the good fortune of the second inning, it would have been just another disappointing outing for him. There was a noticeable lack of ground ball outs, something one would hope to see with Hill on the mound.

After the second, the Nats hitters reverted to old forms, with Milledge, Dukes and Pena all swinging for the fences at every at bat, hoping to tack on an insurance run. However, I believe this was actually a counterproductive strategy. Bullpens tend to be more fragile when they are pitching with runners on base, and the Mariners (with the help of Nats batters) were effective at keeping the basepaths empty.

The good news is, the Nats nicked the Mariners bullpen last night, and with J. J. Putz on the DL, a return to (or perhaps more correctly, a new visit to) a disciplined approach at the plate could lead to a victory tonight.

The Mariners are eerily like the Nats. Kick ‘em while they’re down

(by the way, I have pictures from the game, but I need to get them from my camera to the computer… I’ll work on that later and post them to this entry)

Just a couple notes, posted from my phone…

Wily Mo Pena can, apparently, still hit. He hit a BP fastball out of the park here at Safeco. In a game, probably, thats a grounder to short.

There are a few other Nats fans in attendance. We all look shell-shocked.

Safeco is a spectacular place to watch a game. The park reminds me a bit of Citizens Bank Park and Nationals Park, but with an imposing roof hanging over right field. I have great seats tonight, but I will sample the upper reaches of the park tomorrow and Sunday.

No lines at the concession stands…

More later…

Just a quick note – What do the Nats and I have in common? We’re both headed for Seattle for the weekend.

I’ll be taking in the series with the Mariners, and I’ll bring a camera and post my thoughts from the Great Pacific Northwest – which is what I normally do, anyway, but at least this time, I’ll actually be at the game.

For the superstitious among you, the Nats play much better when I wear my red Nats stuff, so I am bringing all of my red Nats apparel, and leaving the blue at home. Also, the Nats are 3-0 this season when I am in attendance. Last year they were 0-7.